Two days ago, I posted the first part of my chat with Max Flight, and today here's the rest:
Vinay:Yeah the airport in Changi is amazing, as is Dubai. I want to see those someday as well!! But United Airlines? How do you figure. Sentimentally perhaps, but their onboard product is subpar (NO IFE), though Channel 9 is pretty cool, and I always seem to have issues on their flights.
Max Flight:IFE is an interesting topic. Used to be you could bring a book or take whatever the airline dished up, and some were better than others. Then we had laptops and those could be our entertainment, but battery life was an issue on all but short flights. Availability of inflight internet ups the utility of our laptops as entertainment devices, and you have to ask how much you really need the airline for IFE content.
Now my prediction has been that the likes of the iPad (and especially Android-based tablets to come) open up new possibilities for personal IFE. These devices are designed around content delivery and I think we're going to see very exciting apps developed that provide entertainment options not available on laptops. Couple that with inflight internet and airline provided IFE becomes irrelevant. Personal IFE will absolutely rock.
At least that's what I think. I wonder what Mary Kirby has to say on this topic
Vinay:Hmm, yes… But not all travelers use their own IFE, and I consider it as a big plus.. The only place I'll compromise on, is if the airline offers WiFi… So do you do any planespotting??
Max Flight:The nearest airport is an hour's drive for me and it's kind of hard to make the time for planespotting. Especially given the time I devote to the website and the podcast. Speaking of which, we did have planespotter Phil Derner on episode 86 of the Airplane Geeks podcast. Phil runs NYCAviation (http://nycaviation.com/) which is a great site for planespotters and aviation enthusiasts in general. It's worth checking out.
Vinay:Yeah I'm a member there. Ok so, lets move on to aircraft. Being in the engining business, have you heard anything about the re-engining of the 737/A320, and if so how would that work?
Max Flight:In my opinion, Boeing and Airbus were probably hoping to put off their next generation narrow bodies while their resources were going into the A380, 787, 747-8, and A350XWB. Along comes the Bombardier CSeries offering significantly lower operating expenses, as well as the Russian Irkut, and Chinese COMAC. Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G geared turbofan and the CFM Leap-X engine look toward double digit reductions in fuel burn and airlines are interested. Boeing and Airbus are finding it difficult to do nothing while these "upstarts" take market share.
So re-engining the B737 and A320 families may be an interim step for the airframers. This would be much less expensive than developing a new airframe, but it's still a lot – maybe 20% of the cost of a new plane? Re-engining the A320 is probably less challenging than the B737 because the fans are larger than current engines and the A320 has more under wing clearance.
Airbus has stated that they'd like to make a decision to proceed with re-engining or not by Farnborough. Boeing says "this year" but it's a bit of a cat and mouse game: everyone wants to come out ahead and tipping your hand too early may work against you.
Longer term we have the unducted fan lurking, but that's a long way off, and most certainly will require new airframes.
It's exciting times for the jet engine business from a technology standpoint, but we're also looking at engines that are a lot greener: less fuel consumtion, lower emissions, and quiter. And that's a good thing.
Vinay:Ok, so as you said, will better fuel efficiency help economize next gen 4 engine planes such as the 747-8 and A380, or will they become money losing novelties??
Max Flight:The 747-8/787 engines from GE and RR, and the A380 engines from RR and the Engine Alliance (GE/PW) are developments of what we've seen in the past. More efficient, but nothing like the 15% we should get from the GTF and Leap-X engines.
The market predictions are for the most growth in the narrow body area, not so much in wide bodies. So that's where the engine technology focus is. Plus it might be a better strategy to introduce new technology at the lower thrust level. PW has said that the GTF is scalable to higher thrust ranges so we might see it on widebodies later. But for now I think the heavys will stay with the engine technology they have now. There is too much development money to recover before thinking about spending yet more cash to develop something new.
Vinay:So there goes my dream. But wouldn't restricting capcity size between airports do wonders for pollution. i.e: airlines can only operate planes with >350 seats on NYC-London, vs. 4 daily 757, like CO has now…?
Max Flight:The Europeans seem set on addressing pollution through carbon trading schemes. I'm not sure the Americans are so enthusiastic about that!
Vinay: OK, so I just want to get one more question in. One, do you believe the federal government should be able to attach conditions to slot trades such as the US Airways/Delta one?
Max Flight:I think the role of the federal government in this area should be to apply the laws regarding collusion and antitrust. These allow the market to operate freely, unless the consumer is damaged through (effectively) price fixing and restraint of trade. Let's use the laws already on the books.